Persuasion Speech/ Paper on US Hegemony

The Rise and Fall of Nations: the Decline of a Hegemon

Hegemony. A word that few of you know, in fact, a word that few people in general are aware of. Hegemony is defined as follows by the Merriam Webster dictionary: " influence or authority over others", or further still: "the social, cultural, ideological, or economic influence exerted by a dominant group". There are two types of hegemony: Soft power and Hard power. Ideally, a hegemon must be able to exert both of these powers. Soft power is cultural influence, while Hard power is military or financial/ economic influence, formed for intimidation. Over the centuries, there has always been a major, or 2 major countries that dominate the world when it comes to economics, culture, diplomacy or military. Whether it be Rome during the Roman Empire, France and Britain during the late 18th century and early 19th century or even Germany during the second world war. More recently though... US hegemony. Ever since the fall of Germany at the close of the Second World War, the United states became hegemon. Although granted during the Cold War there was a multipolar system between the USSR and the US (After this we entered the Pax Americana, similar to the Pax Romana of the Roman Empire). However, although the US is still a powerful country, it has been losing steam, and it's evident that Hegemony is no longer sustainable. Now, all of you are sitting here wondering "How does the affect me? I'm only a kid!" Well, one day we will all soon be looking for a job, which is impossible to find in a poor economy and we all, naturally, want a strong military to protect us in times of distress. Both of which are in peril if the US insists on the mantle of hegemony. What makes me qualified to talk about this? A 2 week debate camp at Harvard which focused on this very question and of course further research for this speech that I am giving today. And of course, I, like all of you, am concerned for the future of this world, which we will one day inherit, whether it be in a good or terrible state. Why must the United States let go of hegemony? What makes it no longer able to sustain it? To start, the military has fallen to levels that do not permit a country to influence the globe as a hegemon should, the economy has seen a major slowdown. Finally, There's a new player in town that wants the mantle as well, and by all means, it can have it.

Over the past years, the United States Military has been declining in power and has nearly reached levels not worthy of hegemony, due to several reasons. According to the Heritage Foundation, the role of the US military is to:

"to protect Americans... use international sea, air, and space...engage in more than one major contingency at a time....deter enemies and opportunists...preventing destabilization...guarding against threats to the peace of America's friends." Yet defense spending has each year been further and further below how much Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and President Barack Obama asked for in 2015."(2) In 2016, Gates received 116 BILLION dollars less than he asked for, and US military spending has lowered ever since 2011 (after inflation naturally) also according to the Heritage Foundation. Now, many of you are already thinking, "the United States already has such a large military with so much spending, why would we need more?" Well, even though newly-elected President Trump proposed a new 603 billion dollar defense budget, Republican Senator John Mccain insists that: "With a world on fire, America cannot secure peace through strength with just 3 percent more than President Obama's budget".

The US economy has also been slowing down under the weight of hegemony, and a continuation of this trend will make it harder and harder for people living in America to get jobs, and a decrease in the US GDP and GDP per capita. Naturally, this will all build up to create an even slower economy. According to the New York Times, the American 2016 economic growth rate was 1.6% in 2016, the lowest rate in a downward trend since 2011. What's next? The first quarter growth rate was .7%. Once again, the lowest in 3 years.

Now, I mentioned before that there was a new player in town. And yes, there is: China. Back several centuries, China was the greatest country in the world. However due to a series of tragic events, China fell back with its technology, economy and military. However, now, people are calling this the "Asian Century". Granted the US might be the largest economic superpower in the world as of now, but according to Andrew Soergel, economic reporter of US News: "China is expected to depass the US economy by 2031", or only 14 years from now. The Chinese military is also: "China's Military Capabilities Are Growing at a Shocking Speed" says the National Interest along with: "China's military is developing ships, submarines, aircraft, intelligence systems and foreign bases in a bid to become a global military power". Now many of you are worried that we cannot trust China. That the second we let down our guard they will stab us in the back. However, the National interest also states that: "China has 3 Desires: More Influence, More Respect, and More Space, not dominance". Humiliated by the opium war and its secessions to the western European powers, China's only desire is to prove to the world that it isn't weak, and that it deserves respect. Now, naturally, the idea of "sharing hegemony" pops up into our minds. It's a good idea isn't it? Sadly, multipolar systems have never worked well. In Europe, wars constantly raged between France and Britain (the main hegemons during their time) and their allies. These wars crumpled countries and their economies in the 18th and 19th century. More recently however according to the Dictionary of America, the United States and the USSR created a multipolar system during the Cold War. Everyone here has heard about the it, you just didn't know that it was the idea of hegemony and multipolar system being expressed. During this time, progress was made, but at what cost? As John F. Kennedy said: "we offer not a pledge but a request: that both sides begin anew the quest for peace, before the dark powers of destruction unleashed by science engulf all humanity in planned or accidental self-destruction." Sadly, the Cold War instigated by multipolar systems brought "planned or accidental self-destruction" with the creation of numerous new bombs.

In conclusion, US hegemony is no longer sustainable as the American steamboat loses its coal and heat in the furnaces. No longer may it rule the seas as it is dragged down by the rising waters in the hull. No longer can it be hegemon when there are larger, more modern ships being built. The times have changed and so have the rulers of the earth. China should now take the mantle of hegemony, take center stage on the World Theater, and the US should now return to port. Seat itself in the audience, grant even though it be the first row.