Book Nerds {IronStrange} |ON HOLD|

7

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We stayed on the couch, eating our rather large lunch for a while. We were just chatting as my TV played Ellen in the background. I thought to myself, well, here goes nothing, "Have you ever heard of the Monty Hall problem?" I asked, attempting to make conversation. Stephen looked away from his noodles, and nodded. He covered his mouth and spoke before he continued chewing, "I believe so." I turned down the volume on the TV a little bit. "So not really?" "No not at all!" He smirked. "Okay, well I'm about to ramble about numbers for a bit and you won't be able to stop me. You ready?" Stephen shrugged, "I gue-"

"-To boil it all down, this girl named Marilyn Vos Savant who worked in this magazine and had a column called Ask Marilyn." Stephen seemed to be intently listening, only breaking his gaze to eat more food. "She answered math problems or life advise and whatever. Then one days some viewer asked, 'You are on a game show. On this game show the idea is to win a car as a prize. The game show host shows you three doors. He says that there is a car behind one of the doors and there are goats behind the other two doors. He ask you to pick a door. You pick a door but the door is not open. Then the game show host opened one of the doors you didn't pick to show a goat. Then he says that you are one final chance to change your mind before the doors are open and you get a car or a goat. So he asks you if you want to change your mind and pick the other unopened door instead. What should you do?'"

Stephen considered it for a a few seconds before opening his mouth. "Well it's a fifty-fifty chance then isn't it, just stay with your door." I got up off the couch and carried my plate to the sink, "Actually, you should always change and pick the final door because the chances are 2 in 3 that there will be a car behind that door. But if you use your intuition you think that the chance is fifty-fifty because you think there is an equal chance." I dug through one of the drawers in my counters and pulled out a notebook for grocery lists and a pen. "Im lost,, what equation are you using?" Stephen spoke, standing up and walking over, also putting his plate in the sink. I sat on the counter and began scribbling through the notebook. "Look, I'll spell it out for you."

"Let the doors be called X, Y, and Z. Let Cx be the event that the car is behind door X and so on. Let Hx be the event that the host opens door X and so on." I saw the gears turning in Stephen's head as he followed along with my scribbled equation. "Supposing that you choose door X, the possibility that you win a car if you then switch your choice is given by the following formula." I turned the notepad to him so he wouldn't he to lean over the counter so view it. The horrendous yellow page from the notepad read: P(Hz^Cy) + P(Hy^Cz) = P(Cy)•P(Hz | Cy) + P(Hy | Cz) = (1/3 • 1) + (1/3 • 1) = 2/3

"Get it?" I asked, hoping off the counter and pushing the notepad into his chest. Once again, Stephen took a moment to think it through. "So,, correct me if im wrong, but," Ge hesitated, trying to figure out how to express his thoughts. "If you change, 2 times out of 3 you get a car. And if you stick, you only get a car 1 time out of 3?" He scratched at his stubble. "YES!" I hissed with excitement. Stephen sighed, a breath of relief soon filled his lungs. "That was,, the WORST. Why did we even talk about this?" Stephen asked.

       "Oh, right! My point! This shows that intuition can sometimes get things wrong. And intuition is what people use in life to make decisions. But logic can help you work out the right answer." It made sense in my head, but, only in my head. I forgot to explain the context earlier, yikes. Stephen only responded with a slight, "huh." I cleared my thirst and continued my thought. "My dad always said that I liked math because it was safe." Once again, not enough of an explanation. "What do you mean by safe?" Stephen questioned. "He said I liked math because it meant solving problems and these problems were difficult and interesting but there was always a straightforward answer at the end." Stephen took a second to take in what I said.

       "hm. Wise." He said as I began waking towards my bedroom. "And what he meant was that math wasn't like life because in life there are no straightforward answers at the end." I spoke, hearing Stephen's footsteps trailing behind mine. "That problem also shows that my dad was wrong and numbers are sometimes very complicated and not very straightforward at all. And that's why I like the Monty Hall problem." I smirked as Stephen entered my bedroom. "I get it," Stephen began as he went back to the area that we were previously sitting. "You want to prove him wrong. You want your dad to know that he was wrong, and you were right." Stephen pointed out. "Wow." I said sarcastically.

"Anyways, back to business; what metal do you wanna try out first?" He scratched at his stubble. "Hmm. How about Iron, Bronze then Silver, and then whatever else?" He looked over at me for reassurance. "Yep! Alright let's do this!" I started taking measurements of his fingers and heating the metals up in separate molds. "Oh, Stephen?" "Yeah?" "Forgot time mention this but to make the ring accurate, I'd need a silicone mold of your fingers." He made a face, most likely confused as to why my tone was serious. "Okay?" "Yeah so im gonna have to shave your finger hairs." Stephen kinda shrugged at the idea, and followed me as I headed to my bathroom. I reached into my shower and grabbed my razor as Stephen washed his hands. "Showith thyne left-th handth!" I tried to make the occasion more entertaining then it was. He smiled and stuck out his hand. And within a minute, all the hair that had partially covered the scars on his fingers were gone.

Stephen led the way back to my room, standing next to the table we were at before. I checked on the metals and walked back over to Stephen with what I needed to make a mold of his fingers. "Here's a little disclaimer, in order to make the silicone fit nicely, you're gonna have to leave your hand in there for a bit. Nothing too long but you'll get bored." "Fun." He uttered, sharing a slight smile with me. I stuck his hand into the silicone mix, and set a timer on my phone. "And now, we wait."

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