Dear Jeanette,
As of 08:00:00 this morning, it's been:
-92 Days since the first case of COVID-19 was reported to the World Health Organization on 31 Dec. 2019
-72 Days since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the United States on 21 Jan. 2020
-63 Days since the World Health Organization declared a Global Health Emergency of International Concern* on 30 Jan. 2020
-51 Days since the name was formally changed to COVID-19 (COrona VIrus Disease - 2019) on 11 Feb. 2020
-35 Days since the first case of community-spread/locally-acquired case of COVID-19 in the United States was confirmed on 26 Feb. 2020
-32 Days since the first death caused by COVID-19 in the United States was confirmed on 29 Feb. 2020
-22 Days since the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11 Mar. 2020
-20 Days since United States President Donald Trump declared a National Emergency on 13 Mar. 2020
-14 Days since California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a mandatory statewide stay-at-home order on 19 Mar. 2020
-5 Days since I went on leave from work on 26 Mar. 2020
*This is only the 6th time in the organization's 72-year-long history they've made this declaration, as it is reserved for extraordinary events that threaten to spread internationally. Extraordinary. Let that sink in for a sec.
And now here we are.
Today is Day 5 of quarantine, and day 21 of the pandemic. The dining room closed down completely today at work. We're not even doing takeout anymore. Down to the heart of our place. My little sister Ezra's school is officially closed for the rest of the school year. Today is the first day of my leave that I actually spent more than half of out of bed, and I haven't cried at all today. We're all trying our best.
The main reasons I had to leave work are that I live with my parents and it's not fair to them if I'm putting myself and everyone in the house at risk while they're socially distancing as much as possible, and my lungs were very weak when I was little. I had really bad (sometimes life threatening) asthma and breathing issues as a kid. My asthma has been pretty mild for the last 9-10 years now, and I hope it stays that way unless I can get rid of it entirely. It usually only shows up in the form of severe bronchitis and/or allergies. Nevertheless I'm still more at risk than I thought, so that's fun.
They're saying that in the United States as a whole the virus will probably peak around 14/15 Apr. with around 2,200 deaths in one day. Speaking of what people are saying about the virus, I feel like I'm getting dumber and more confused with every article and scientific term I read. All of these predictions about the curve, when it's going to reach its peak, and how long it will take to flatten it. Time to clarify what these terms mean before they become interchangeable buzzwords.
-Curve: An epidemiological curve is a projection of how many people will likely get COVID-19 over a specific period. Curves vary in steepness based on the number of people infected and the speed at which the virus can be spread to others. Italy's case count skyrocketed very quickly, so it's had a very steep curve. Due to how quickly the curve steepened it is likely that it will flatten out relatively quickly as well, but until it does the healthcare system is overwhelmed. The lack of resources needed to treat such a high number of patients is resulting in doctors having to choose which patients live and die, and a lot of avoidable deaths. A flatter curve means the same number of cases over a longer period of time. It takes longer for it to start bending downward, but the healthcare system will be less overwhelmed in the process. A Steeper curve means a faster but deadlier fall, and a flatter curve means a slower but less risky fall.
Flattening the Curve: Slowing the spread of the virus and lessening the number of people needing treatment for it at any given time
Peak: The day a virus peaks is the day the highest number of cases of and deaths from the virus are reported. The United States as a whole is projected to peak on 14-15 Apr. while New York is projected to peak on 09 Apr., California on 27 Apr., and Florida between 01 May and 03 May.
It's comforting to know that when doctors and scientists are making these projections and looking at the numbers for California they feel hopeful. In comparison to most other states we're likely going to have a low death rate and we probably won't have a significant shortage of resources. If we keep up our restrictions and continue taking this seriously I should be back at work pretty soon. Until I know for sure when I can come back though I can rest a little easier knowing I'll have a job to come back to. My boss said so himself. It's relieving to see that all of the precautions we're taking are really working. Especially to this significant of a degree. We can't let our guard down, but we've bought ourselves time, resources, and a flatter and hopefully more short-lived spike.
We still can't afford to take any risks, but for the first time in almost a month, or so it feels at least, I'm actually able to make out a bit of light at the end of this long dark tunnel.
Goodnight. Stay healthy please.
Love,
Luna
YOU ARE READING
Letters to the Outside World
Non-FictionAt the start of the COVID-19 pandemic I was working in fast food, but about a week after California went into lockdown I had to leave to go into quarantine with my family. I promised I would only be gone for two weeks, but I ended up being gone for...
