Making Confessions under Uncertainty

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In a this-never-happened-in-real life episode
two conspirators in a fraud are arrested and offered a deal:
If you confess and testify against your accomplice
we'll let you off and throw the book at the other guy
— 10 years in prison.

If both stay quiet, the prosecutors cannot prove
the more serious charges and both would spend
just a year behind bars for lesser crimes.

If both confess, the prosecutors would not need their testimony
and both would get eight-year prison sentences.

At first glance, keeping quiet might seem the best strategy.
If both did so, both would get off fairly lightly.

Without knowing what the other prisoner is doing
each is faced with this choice: If he confesses
he could end up with freedom or eight years in prison
If he stays quiet, he goes to prison for one year or 10 years.

The prisoner's dilemma is the modern Sacrament of Penance
by which offenders may confess sins committed after baptism
and have them redressed, retaliated, or absolved by priest
or police officer, the last will be first and the first will be last
to conduct the rite within a reconciliation booth is not necessary.

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