get informed.

Covid 'lab leak throry': What we've learned

Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf, CNN
Updated 8:51 PM EST, Mon February 27, 2023

Video Ad Feedback
China infuriated by lab leak theory while simultaneously pointing finger at US lab
04:02 - Source: CNN
This photo taken on February 6, 2020 shows a laboratory technician working on samples from people to be tested for the new coronavirus at "Fire Eye" laboratory in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province. - BGI Group, a genome sequencing company based in southern China, said it opened on February 5 a lab in Wuhan able to test up to 10,000 people per day for the virus. The official Chinese death toll from the coronavirus outbreak rose on February 7 to 636, with the government saying total infections had climbed past 30,000. (Photo by STR / AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
China infuriated by lab leak theory while simultaneously pointing finger at US lab
04:02
ron desantis digital video book tour
CNN analyst says this Republican is 'obviously' going to run in 2024
01:23
first lady jill biden saenz intvw
Hear what first lady thinks about Biden's reelection plans
02:02
dana bash jake sullivan sotu 2 26 23 SPLIT
Bash asks National Security Adviser about new report on Covid's origin. Hear his response
01:19
Stephanie Bice Chrissy Houlahan 2
Hear the family issue bringing Democrats and Republicans together
04:27
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) waits to speak during a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol on February 1, 2023 in Washington, DC.
'It's crazy I have to say this': CNN's Abby Phillip reacts to Taylor Greene's idea
01:45
honig kohrs vpx
'Bad for prosecutors': Ex-prosecutor reacts to Trump grand jury foreperson's remarks
02:30
01 kaitlan collins austin interview
'He knows where to find me': US Defense Secretary says Chinese counterpart refuses talks
03:40
An aerial view of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2022.
Classified docs found at Mar-a-Lago months after searches
02:21
ron desantis student protesters SPLIT
Hear Florida student protesters' message to DeSantis following statewide walkouts
01:08
rudy giuliani jan 6 testimony
'You guys are not tough enough': Rudy Giuliani describes heated White House meeting (July 2022)
08:29
Lloyd Austin
Pentagon chief's prediction about Russia's war in Ukraine
01:34
Kevin McCarthy Tucker Carlson Split file
Hear why Kevin McCarthy gave Jan. 6 security footage to Tucker Carlson
01:58
Chokwe Antar Lumumba
Mayor reacts to bill that could have White-appointed court system for majority-Black city
03:47
nikki haley vpx
Hear what Nikki Haley said about Confederate history in 2010 interview
03:11
maggie haberman emily kohrs SPLIT
See Maggie Haberman's reaction to Trump grand jury foreperson's statements
02:17
See More Videos
A version of this story appears in CNN's What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

CNN
—
An updated intelligence assessment about the origins of the Covid-19 virus has reopened the long-simmering and unsolved debate about how the virus came to be – and will fuel a new committee House Republicans have created to investigate the issue.

While scientists still predominantly believe the virus occurred naturally in animals and spread to humans in an outbreak at a market in Wuhan, China, the US Department of Energy's Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence is now the second tentacle of the US government intelligence apparatus, along with the FBI, that endorses the "lab leak theory" – the minority view that the virus occurred as a result of work in a Chinese lab.

The DOE office is one of 18 government agencies that make up the intelligence community, which are under the umbrella of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Most of the intelligence community remains either split or leaning toward the natural occurrence theory that scientific investigations have concluded as most likely. But without conclusive evidence, no one has been able to reject the lab leak theory entirely.

The theory has been the subject of much focus by Republican lawmakers, and polling in 2021 suggested a majority of Americans believe the Chinese government had something to do with the origins of the virus. Asked whether they believe the virus originated from a laboratory leak in China or from human contact with an infected animal, about half (52%) said that they believed a lab leak was responsible.

Now in the House majority, Republicans have formed a special subcommittee of the House Oversight Committee specifically to investigate, among other things, China's role in the early spread of the virus and US government dollars that helped fund some research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the research facility at the center of the lab leak theory.

Lack of answers about the origins of Covid-19 and an accumulation of circumstantial evidence have led some scientists, the Biden administration and the World Health Organization to argue that the lab leak theory needs more study. If only China was cooperating.

Ad feedback
US lawmakers who have pushed the lab leak theory seized on reporting about the new Department of Energy assessment, although the details of what led to the assessment are not yet public.

"I'm pleased the Department of Energy has finally reached the same conclusion that I had already come to," Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement.

Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri demanded more information about the Department of Energy's assessment and promised to push for more such reports to be declassified.

Still a minority view
The change in opinion by the Energy Department's intelligence office is far from a total backing of the "lab leak" theory.

For starters, the conclusion was reached only with "low confidence," as opposed to medium or high confidence.

CNN's Jeremy Herb and Natasha Bertrand explain the confidence levels:

Ad feedback
Intelligence agencies can make assessments with either low, medium or high confidence. A low confidence assessment generally means that the information obtained is not reliable enough or is too fragmented to make a more definitive analytic judgment or that there is not enough information available to draw a more robust conclusion.

It's not clear what exactly changed things for the officials involved in the assessment for the Department of Energy, but whatever it was has not convinced the majority of intelligence agencies.