Aviation-Centric Combined Fleet

Chapter 16 - Contemporary

Summer 1941

A certain Navy restaurant

"Since the United States has already deployed radar, a surprise attack by carrier-based aircraft is unlikely. If you seriously believe in the possibility of a surprise attack, you're either scientifically or militarily illiterate. Moreover, strategically speaking, it would be a fatal move to provoke the anger of the United States and its people."

Admiral Yamamoto, commander of the 1st Mobile Fleet, raised his eyebrows at these words from the mouth of Navy Minister Hori, a former classmate of the Naval College's 32nd term and a close friend. However, sitting next to Hori, Shiozawa, Chief of the Navy General Staff, nodded significantly, indicating his agreement with Minister Hori.

In the midst of the Naval College's 32nd term, known as an exceptional year, two brilliant individuals who consistently competed for the top position, Number One and Number Two, casually criticized the plan that Yamamoto had nurtured. The Commander of the Combined Fleet, Admiral Yoshida, remained silent, but Yamamoto noticed his subtle nod, though not as pronounced as General Shiozawa's. While trying not to show his disappointment on his face, Yamamoto continued to emphasize the significance of his proposal.

What Admiral Yamamoto presented to the three was the plan for a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. At the beginning of the war, he planned to launch a surprise attack against the US Pacific Fleet anchored at Pearl Harbor on Oahu with 600 planes launched from four armored carriers Yamato, Musashi, Shinano, and Kai, as well as the four Amagi-class carriers, all of which would soon enter service. With these planes, a surprise attack could potentially deliver a devastating blow to the main force of the Pacific Fleet while they were at rest.

If successful, the forces engaged in the Southern Operation would no longer need to worry about attacks from the Pacific Fleet in their rear, and depending on the outcome, a decrease in morale among American military personnel and civilians could be expected. Facing a formidable opponent like the United States, conventional methods would be ineffective. By confronting them conventionally, Japan would inevitably find itself in a disadvantageous position and eventually be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. In the absence of alternatives other than a short-term decisive battle or an early peace, Yamamoto believed that even if it was a somewhat speculative operation, it should be carried out decisively. As Yamamoto passionately explained his plan, Hori, in a deliberately calm tone, voiced his opposition.

"As you say, with eight carriers and 600 planes, it might be possible to inflict some damage on the Pacific Fleet. However, the real issue is that even if the surprise attack were successful, the losses on our side would be much greater. As you know, the United States is already in the midst of a rush to complete new ships. The state-of-the-art battleships North Carolina and Washington were commissioned this spring, and further improvements are expected to be completed next spring. In the fall, an improved version of the Yorktown-class aircraft carrier will be completed, and by the end of next year or at the latest, the beginning of the following year, the first ship of an even more advanced large aircraft carrier will be launched. In such a situation, attacking the outdated battleships and carriers deployed in the Pacific Fleet would hardly cause significant damage to the American military or its people. Instead, turning a surprise attack into a deceitful assault to incite hostility against the Japanese people and unite the American people would be a much-appreciated gift to Roosevelt. Also, a short-term decisive battle and early peace is an unrealistic scenario, especially when dealing with the United States. Certainly, you, with your extensive experience in the United States, seem to be familiar with the immense strength of its national and industrial power. However, on the other hand, you may not understand the strength of the American people. Let me make it clear: the mental strength of the American people or soldiers is never inferior, even if it occasionally surpasses that of the Japanese. Their perseverance is incomparable to the people of a certain island nation in the East, who, at the slightest difficulty, would willingly give up everything and abandon it all."

In response to Yamamoto's appeal regarding the strength of the United States, Hori, while acknowledging it, countered based on the resilience of the American people.

"Are you saying that the mental strength of the extravagantly accustomed American people surpasses ours?" To this unexpected perspective from Hori, Yamamoto pondered for a moment.

In support of Hori's argument, Shiozawa also spoke to reinforce his point.

"Just as we possess the Yamato spirit, the Americans have something called like the frontiersmen spirit. Whether during the western frontier expansion or in the New World, they faced various obstacles. They overcame these obstacles with a vigorous fighting spirit and, at the same time, robust endurance. Well, it was undoubtedly a troublesome act for the indigenous people, but if you delve into their history, you can understand their temperament to some extent. Even if the Pacific Fleet on Oahu were to be annihilated by the attack of the carrier task force, they would not lose their morale. A surprise attack would only fuel their revenge against the Japanese, regardless of the extent of the damage. Now, consider the reverse situation. If we were surprised and lost half of our fleet, would we easily surrender?"

Hori and Shiozawa, who valued facts and evidence while never underestimating the psychological aspect, left Yamamoto with no choice but to contemplate. The top two of the same class uniformly denied the effectiveness of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, adding the finishing touch that it would only benefit the American side. In this situation, Yamamoto had no choice but to try to enlist Yoshida's support. However, Yoshida readily sided with Hori and Shiozawa. Even the eloquent Yamamoto found it challenging to prevail in a three-to-one situation. In response, he resorted to an ultimatum.

"If you don't accept the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, I am considering resigning from the Navy."

With those words, Yamamoto surveyed the faces of his three classmates evenly. However...

"You can resign if you want."

"Yeah, that's right. It's your decision. I won't interfere."

"Same here."

With no one to detain him, Yamamoto quickly retracted his statement. He couldn't easily abandon the dream of crushing the American warships as the commander-in-chief of the 1st Mobile Fleet.