The Science of Conspiracy Theories

Las Vegas Shootings

Las Vegas Shootings

I wish I didn't have to discuss this, but I realize that something must be said about it. I owe it to the victims of the deadliest shooting attack in United States history. As of this writing, 59 people were slain and 527 injured by a single mad dog gunman, who unceremoniously killed them from a 32-floor room at the Mandalay Bay Casino.

The latest conspiracy is that the lone wolf gunman had accomplices. The thought here is that Stephen Paddock, 64 a multimillionaire, could not have assembled the arsenal of weapons, ammunition and explosives over a 33 week period that the police recovered from the hotel room and his house.

The explosives that Paddock assembled were also worrisome. He had 50 pounds of  Tannerite (a reactive explosive that consists of ammonium nitrate and aluminum powder. He also had several pounds of ammonium nitrate, which makes a very effective explosive. Was he planning to use these explosives to kill?

It certainly wasn't his girlfriend that helped him. Paddock sent her to the Philippians and sent 100,000 dollars to her. She claims to have no idea why he would do what he did. I don't think the authorities will get much out of her.

The man had enough money to buy the weapons in perfectly leagal transactions, and there is no law against owning multiple guns. Lots of gun collectors and enthusiasts do this. I've known people like that.

At first, I though that the guy used an actual machine gun, but it turns out that he used the easily obtained methods to convert semiautomatic rifles into simulated automatics. The bump-fire stock method is readily available. In many states, the modification is perfectly legal, but using the modification is not.

The other theory is that he was planning to do his evil deed in other cities, such as Chicago and Boston. He had booked rooms in a Chicago hotel near the August Lollapalooza music festival and had researched locations in Boston. If this were the case, it would indicate that he planned many more attacks.

What are the facts that are known? One is that Paddock does not fit the usual profile for a loan wolf mass murderer. Most such idiots are loaners with little in the way of social skills or friends. Good examples are the Uni-bomber and the nut that shot people in a Denver movie theater. Paddock was not like those crazies. He was sociable and had a girl friend. He had lots of money, which is not consistent with mass murderers; although, there have been cases like that in history, mostly in other countries.

First of all, if Paddock had planned to survive the Las Vegas shooting event, he made several mistakes. Despite setting up cameras in the hallway and near the door of his room in the Mandalay Bay casino, he would have had no chance of getting out of the room alive. If he had planned to act as a sniper and only shoot a celebrity, he could have taken the shot and then got away before the police got there. However, his plan was to kill as many people as he could. This involved shooting thousand of rounds from military style rifles rigged to shoot like a machine gun. This would have been easy to spot because of the muzzle flashes. He fired weapons for 10 minutes and this gave the police time to get to his room before he was finished. He also tried to shoot it out with the authorities when the arrived in the hallway that led to his room. Amazingly, one officer suffered a leg wound.

Paddock allegedly shot himself and was found dead when the authorities got into his room.

Paddock's attack would have been much the same as a World War II sniper set up in the top of a building shooting at approaching enemy forces. It was essentially a suicide mission.

The other theory going around was that this was a terrorist attack. Terrorism involves an attempt by force or violence to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. (That's the wording of the law). However, Nevada law has a more broadly worded definition. Their law defines terrorism as using violence to cause great bodily harm of death to the general population. I suppose one could call this an act of domestic terrorism, at least in Nevada.

Claims by ISIS that they were responsible were considered false. Paddock doesn't fit the profile for this idea either.

What doesn't make sense is why someone like Paddock, who had lots of money, would do something as crazy as this. If loosing money at the casino angered him he would have shot the casino up. It's obvious that he had planned this very carefully and had spent time accumulating the ammunition and guns to accomplish the dirty deed. Why he did it is unknown and may not be known.

Was Paddock a psychopath? Psychopaths derive gratification from criminal, sexual, or aggressive impulses with the inability to learn from past mistakes. Psychopaths are incapable of forming loving relationships. This doesn't fit Paddock. He also doesn't fit the idea of sociopath because that involves impulsive and opportunistic criminal behavior.

The problem is that there have been 272 mass (4 or more victims) shootings in America in 2017. Does this indicate a tendency?

What worries me is that this single evil act will spawn copycat attacks form nuts who want to do Paddock one better.

Thanks for reading.